An Introduction to Mathematical Statistics and Its Applications (6th Edition)

Published by Pearson
ISBN 10: 0-13411-421-3
ISBN 13: 978-0-13411-421-7

Chapter 2 Probability - 2.4 Conditional Probability - Questions - Page 50: 51

Answer

$\frac{16}{25}=0.64$

Work Step by Step

Let's define the events: $A_1$: "send her an e-mail" $A_2$: "leave a message on her phone" $B$: "she responded within three hours" $P(A_1)+P(A_2)=1$ but $P(A_1)=2P(A_2)$ $2P(A_2)+P(A_2)=1$ $P(A_2)=\frac{1}{3}$ and $P(A_1)=\frac{2}{3}$ $P(B~|~A_1)=0.80$ $P(B~|~A_2)=0.90$ $P(A_1~|~B)=\frac{P(B~|~A_1)P(A_1)}{P(B~|~A_1)P(A_1)+P(B~|~A_2)P(A_2)}$ $P(A_1~|~B)=\frac{0.80\times\frac{2}{3}}{0.80\times\frac{2}{3}+0.90\times\frac{1}{3}}=\frac{\frac{1.6}{3}}{\frac{1.6+0.9}{3}}=\frac{16}{25}=0.64$
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