An Introduction to Mathematical Statistics and Its Applications (6th Edition)

Published by Pearson
ISBN 10: 0-13411-421-3
ISBN 13: 978-0-13411-421-7

Chapter 2 Probability - 2.4 Conditional Probability - Questions - Page 44: 28

Answer

$0.4625$

Work Step by Step

Define the events $A_{1}$ = "Belle Meade was called." $A_{2}$ = "Oak Hill was called.." $A_{3}$ = "Antioch was called." $B$ = "A donation is achieved." Compute the probability of calling each suburb, having a total of $4000$ phone numbers: $P(A_{1})=\displaystyle \frac{1000}{4000}=0.25$ $P(A_{2})=\displaystyle \frac{1000}{4000}=0.25$ $P(A_{3})=\displaystyle \frac{2000}{4000}=0.5$ We are given by the text: $P(B|A_{1})=0.60,$ $P(B|A_{2})=0.55,$ $P(B|A_{3})=0.35$ We can now apply the theorem $$\begin{align*} P(B)&=\displaystyle \sum_{i=1}^{n}P(B|A_{i})P(A_{i}) & & \\ &= 0.60\cdot 0.25+0.55\cdot 0.25+0.35\cdot 0.5 \\ & =0.4625 \end{align*}$$
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