An Introduction to Mathematical Statistics and Its Applications (6th Edition)

Published by Pearson
ISBN 10: 0-13411-421-3
ISBN 13: 978-0-13411-421-7

Chapter 2 Probability - 2.4 Conditional Probability - Questions - Page 44: 31

Answer

$0.02$%

Work Step by Step

Let $A$ be the event "adult not in a high risk group is HIV positive" Let $A^c$ be the event "adult not in a high risk group is not HIV positive" Let $B$ be the event "adult not in a high risk group will test positive for the HIV virus" $P(A)=0.01$%$=0.0001$ $P(A^c)=1-0.0001=0.9999$ $P(B|A)=99.9$%$=0.999$ $P(B|A^c)=100$%$-99.99$%$=0.01$%$=0.0001$ $P(B)=P(B|A)P(A)+P(B|A^c)P(A^c)=0.999\times0.0001+0.0001\times0.9999=0.00019989$ $P(B)=0.019989\%\approx 0.02\%$
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