An Introduction to Mathematical Statistics and Its Applications (6th Edition)

Published by Pearson
ISBN 10: 0-13411-421-3
ISBN 13: 978-0-13411-421-7

Chapter 2 Probability - 2.4 Conditional Probability - Questions - Page 44: 30

Answer

$ \frac{11}{16}$

Work Step by Step

Define the events $A_{1}$ = "Red chip transferred from urn 1. Red chip transferred from urn 2." $A_{2}$ = "Red chip transferred from urn 1. White chip transferred from urn 2." $A_{3}$ = "White chip transferred from urn 1. White chip transferred from urn 2." $A_{3}$ = "White chip transferred from urn 1. Red chip transferred from urn 2." $B$ = "After the transfer, the chip drawn from urn $1$ is red." The probabilities of $A_{i}$ are as follows: $P(A_{1})= \displaystyle \frac{3}{4}\cdot\frac{2}{4} =\frac{3}{8} $ (chosen: one of three reds from urn 1, one of 2 reds from urn 2) $P(A_{2})=\displaystyle \frac{3}{4}\cdot\frac{2}{4}=\frac{3}{8}$ (chosen: one of three reds from urn 1, one of 2 whites from urn 2) $P(A_{3})=\displaystyle \frac{1}{4}\cdot\frac{2}{4}=\frac{1}{8}$ (chosen: one of one whites from urn 1, one of 2 whites from urn 2) $P(A_{4})=\displaystyle \frac{1}{4}\cdot\frac{2}{4}=\frac{1}{8}$ (chosen: one of one whites from urn 1, one of 2 reds from urn 2) The conditional probabilities $P(B|A_{i})$ are as follows: $P(B|A_{1}) =P($Urn 1 contains $3$R and $1$W. A red is drawn.$)=\displaystyle \frac{3}{4}$ $P(B|A_{2}) =P($Urn 1 contains $2$R and $2$W. A red is drawn.$)=\displaystyle \frac{2}{4}=\frac{1}{2}$ $P(B|A_{3}) =P($Urn 1 contains $3$R and $1$W. A red is drawn.$)=\displaystyle \frac{3}{4}$ $P(B|A_{4}) =P($Urn 1 contains $4$R and $0$W. A red is drawn.$)=\displaystyle \frac{4}{4}=1$ We can now apply the theorem $$\begin{align*} P(B)&=\displaystyle \sum_{i=1}^{n}P(B|A_{i})P(A_{i}) & & \\\\ &= \displaystyle \frac{3}{4}\cdot\frac{3}{8} + \frac{1}{2}\cdot\frac{3}{8} + \frac{3}{4}\cdot\frac{1}{8} + 1\cdot\frac{1}{8} \\\\ & =\displaystyle \frac{11}{16} \end{align*}$$
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