An Introduction to Mathematical Statistics and Its Applications (6th Edition)

Published by Pearson
ISBN 10: 0-13411-421-3
ISBN 13: 978-0-13411-421-7

Chapter 2 Probability - 2.4 Conditional Probability - Questions - Page 44: 29

Answer

$0.70$

Work Step by Step

Define the events $A_{1}$ = "The person interviewed was a man." $\quad P(A_{1})=0.47$ (given) $A_{2}$ = "The person interviewed was not a man." $\quad P(A_{2})=1-0.47=0.53$ $B$ = "The person interviewed answered truthfully." The text gives $P(B|A_{1})=0.78$ and $P(B|A_{1})=0.63.$ We can now apply the theorem $$\begin{align*} P(B)&=\displaystyle \sum_{i=1}^{n}P(B|A_{i})P(A_{i}) & & \\ &= 0.78\cdot 0.47+0.63\cdot 0.53 \\ & =0.7005 \end{align*}$$
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