An Introduction to Mathematical Statistics and Its Applications (6th Edition)

Published by Pearson
ISBN 10: 0-13411-421-3
ISBN 13: 978-0-13411-421-7

Chapter 2 Probability - 2.4 Conditional Probability - Questions - Page 38: 14

Answer

$\frac{1}{193}$

Work Step by Step

There are 4 ways to choose three aces: (no heart, no spade, no club, no diamond). Since you now have 3 cards, there are 49 cards left (1 ace, and all cards from 2 to King). So there are 49 ways to choose the fourth card. Of these 49 ways, 1 card is an ace. Having all four aces is $\frac{1}{270,725}$ of the possible four-set cards. This leaves us with 48 ways of choosing a card that is not an ace (to go along with the three aces in hand). So, there are 4 × 48 = 192 sets of cards where exactly three are aces. That gives 193 (192 +1) sets where there are at least three aces. The conditional probability is (1/270,725) / (193/270,725) = 1/193.
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